Russia Ukraine war: Complexity and increased use of lethal weapons. What India should look at?

As of June 2026, the Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new and more complex phase defined by a mix of attritional frontline combat and deep-strike warfare using drones, missiles, and long-range precision attacks. The frontline itself remains active but relatively fluid, with Russia continuing pressure in eastern regions like Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, though its advances have slowed compared to 2025. Ukraine, meanwhile, has managed to regain some territory in 2026 and strengthen its overall position, with reports indicating it has recaptured hundreds of square kilometers and improved its leverage both militarily and diplomatically. At the same time, the nature of the war has fundamentally evolved. While trench warfare continues, the dominant feature of the conflict is now long-range strikes and the increasing use of drones, which are being deployed to target logistics, infrastructure, and high-value assets far from the battlefield. Russia continues to launch large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, sometimes involving hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles in a single wave, causing civilian casualties and significant destruction to infrastructure in cities like Kyiv. This has created a cycle of escalation in which each side responds to the other’s attacks by intensifying its own.

The escalation seen in mid-June 2026, particularly following the G7 summit in France, represents a critical turning point. The G7 summit, held from June 15 to 17, reaffirmed strong and coordinated support for Ukraine, including commitments to provide more air-defense systems, interceptors, and long-range strike capabilities, along with strengthening sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. The leaders also signaled that there was a “new momentum” in the war in Ukraine’s favor, which effectively provided political backing for Kyiv to increase its military pressure on Russia. Almost immediately after the summit, Ukraine launched what has been described as its largest-ever drone assault on Russian territory. The operation involved nearly 1,000 drones in a single day, including around 200 aimed at Moscow, marking an unprecedented scale of attack deep inside Russia. These strikes targeted major infrastructure, including a key oil refinery that supplies a large portion of Moscow’s fuel, leading to fires, airport shutdowns, and even fuel shortages in parts of the city. This demonstrated that Ukraine now has the capability to bring the war directly into Russia’s core areas.

The reasons behind this large-scale Ukrainian attack are rooted in both immediate and strategic calculations. First, it was clearly a retaliatory move. Just days before, Russia had carried out heavy strikes on Kyiv and other cities, damaging cultural landmarks and killing civilians, reinforcing Kyiv’s narrative that these attacks were a justified response. Ukrainian leadership openly framed their actions as imposing reciprocal costs on Russia, signaling that attacks on Ukrainian cities would be matched by attacks on Russian soil. Second, the timing after the G7 summit suggests that Ukraine felt emboldened by renewed Western backing. With increased military support and political endorsement for long-range operations, Kyiv had both the confidence and legitimacy to escalate its strategy. Third, the attacks fit into a broader shift toward economic warfare. Ukraine is increasingly targeting Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, and logistics networks because these are critical to sustaining Russia’s war effort. By damaging energy infrastructure, Ukraine aims to disrupt supply chains, create internal pressures like fuel shortages, and weaken Russia’s overall economic resilience. Fourth, Ukraine is also trying to strengthen its negotiating position. By demonstrating the ability to strike deep inside Russia, it sends a message that Moscow cannot remain insulated from the war, thereby increasing pressure on Russia to come to the negotiating table under less favorable conditions. Finally, Ukraine’s growing advantage in drone warfare plays a major role, as its ability to deploy large numbers of relatively low-cost drones has allowed it to effectively target expensive and strategic Russian assets.

The implications of this escalation are significant and far-reaching. One major consequence is the geographic expansion of the war. What was once largely confined to Ukrainian territory has now clearly spilled into Russia, including high-profile targets in Moscow, signaling a new level of intensity and risk. Secondly, the escalation increases the likelihood of strong Russian retaliation. Moscow has already vowed to respond with “massive” strikes, raising concerns about further destruction in Ukraine and potentially even more aggressive military measures. Third, the attacks on energy infrastructure could have global economic effects. Russia is a major energy exporter, and disruptions to its oil and fuel systems could lead to volatility in global energy markets, impacting prices and supply chains worldwide. At the same time, this escalation presents a paradox where diplomatic efforts and military intensification are happening simultaneously. While there is talk of negotiations and a possible pathway to talks, both sides are increasing military pressure to strengthen their positions before any settlement is reached.

For India, the developments carry important strategic lessons and implications. India’s policy of maintaining strategic autonomy by engaging with both Russia and the West appears increasingly justified in such a volatile and uncertain environment. The escalation highlights the risks associated with overdependence on any single partner, particularly in the energy domain. Since India has been importing Russian oil at discounted rates, any disruption to Russian energy infrastructure could affect supply stability and price levels, making diversification of energy sources crucial. Additionally, the war is pushing Russia closer to China economically and strategically, which is a long-term concern for India because it could reduce New Delhi’s influence over Moscow. The conflict also offers critical lessons in modern warfare, particularly the growing importance of drones, air defense systems, and long-range precision strikes. India will need to invest more heavily in these areas to prepare for future conflicts. At the diplomatic level, India may find opportunities to position itself as a balancing or mediating actor, but it must tread carefully to preserve its relationships with all major powers. Overall, the situation underscores the importance for India of maintaining flexibility, strengthening its economic and military capabilities, and navigating an increasingly complex global order with caution and realism.

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