The Rise of BJP - Analysis

Currently, there is a prevalent discourse surrounding nationalism, Hindutva, the RSS, the mandir-masjid debate, Narendra Modi's popularity, and the leader of oppositions role in form of Rahul Gandhi, among other topics. These concepts have gained significant traction recently, to the extent that it is reasonable to assume that even young children in India are familiar with them, largely due to the pervasive influence of television media, which has become increasingly sensationalized. This media ensures widespread awareness of these issues.

However, have you ever considered the origins of the BJP's ascent? It is important to recognize that the party's success cannot be attributed solely to Narendra Modi. This blog will delve into the factors contributing to the rise of the BJP. What are the causes behind the BJP's rise?

Historical Context

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was founded in 1980, emerging from the remnants of the Janata Party, which had been formed in 1977 after the Emergency period (1975-77) in India. The Janata Party was a coalition of various groups that came together to oppose Indira Gandhi's authoritarian rule, but it later fragmented. The BJP's predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS), was founded by Syama Prasad Mukherjee in 1951, and it became the political base for the BJP when it re-emerged after the Janata Party's dissolution.

Initially, the BJP was led by leaders such as Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, focusing on building a strong Hindu nationalist ideology, promoting a vision of cultural and religious unity. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the BJP's rise was marked by its aggressive stance on issues like the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and its opposition to the Congress Party, which had been dominant in Indian politics since independence.

In 1996, the BJP briefly formed the government at the center but could not sustain it. However, in the 1998 elections, under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP led the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and formed a stable government. The BJP continued to promote economic reforms, infrastructure development, and a strong national defense policy during this period.

In 2014, the BJP, led by Narendra Modi, secured a massive victory, winning a majority in the Lok Sabha. The BJP’s rise and dominance in Indian politics continue, solidifying its position as the leading force in the country's political landscape. Modi currently is leading India for third term.

Reasons for growth of BJP

A primary factor contributing to this situation is undoubtedly the decline of the Congress party. It is apparent that the party has experienced a significant reduction in its electoral support and connection with the public. In the past, one could travel through any village, town, or city in India and hear people express unwavering loyalty by stating, "We will vote for Indira Gandhi, no matter what." Following the death of Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi secured a full majority in Parliament. Since that time, the Congress party has been on a steady decline, a trend that predates 2014.
The second factor is the decline of the left, which has virtually disappeared, with the exception of Kerala. The LPG reforms of 1991 played a significant role in this shift, as the broader public embraced liberalization as the preferred path forward, thereby allowing right-wing parties to emerge prominently. Its been a lot of chatter within left parties that they have failed to present themselves as an alternative to the people of country.
Further, the primary factor contributing to the BJP's success is its robust organizational structure that extends down to the grassroots level, including the involvement of the RSS. They possess an extensive network and maintain strong connections with various segments of society. Additionally, many respected individuals within the community are affiliated with them, which aids in garnering votes. Their organizational strength often referred to as Election Machine fights every election with full power.
Another significant factor that resonated with the masses is the use of nationalistic rhetoric, which has proven effective in swaying public opinion under the banner of Nationalism. This approach often involves references to Pakistan, Kashmir (specifically Article 370), and the predominant religion of the ruling party, Hinduism.
Additionally, globalization played a crucial role in this dynamic. The BJP has successfully promoted a narrative centered on sound economic policies and liberalization, which has facilitated increased trade with the global market. Support from Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) has also bolstered the BJP's policies. Furthermore, globalization has contributed to a heightened awareness of ethnic and identity issues, leading people worldwide to become more conscious of their religion, caste, race, gender, and national identity.
Also the rising fear of Islamic fundamentalism (We can see example of Afghanistan, Turkey etc.) and the rise of acceptance of Hinduism and own culture by the people has been recognised as the another reason for the rise of BJP.

An examination of the statistics following the assassination of Shri. Indira Gandhi reveals that the BJP held only 2 seats and garnered a mere 7.4% of the vote share at that time. The party was relatively weak and lacked widespread recognition among the general public.

1989 BJP got 120 seats and a vote share of 11.56% (After our PM Shri, Rajiv Gandhi ji died).
1991, when coalition government fell, BJP got 120 seats and a vote share of 20.95%. (increased by huge margin)
1996, BJP got 161 seats and a vote share of 20.3% (Bit of decrease from past)
1998, BJP got 182 seats and vote share of 25% (best performance so far)
1999, they got 183 seats and vote share fell to 23.07%
2004, they got 188 seats and vote share almost same 22.16%.
2009, BJP got 116 seats and vote share fell to 18.8% (decrease in the vote share)
2014, they got 282 seats and vote increased strongly to 31.5%.
2019, they got 303 seats and a vote share of 37%. (So far the most number and as congress used to get till 1980s)
2024, got 240 seats and 36% vote share ( a decline) but still going strong.

Decline of Congress

Data showing seat share of Congress (INC)

Then the Lok Sabha seats and votes of Congress during Indira - Rajiv Gandhi is

Lok Sabha seats and votes of Congress during Sonia- Rahul is

Source- Election commission of India

It's quite clear the congress party vote share had declined and the coalition government was the only solution at that time, that is why we had frequent elections as well.

stay tuned for more.

(Correct us if there is error in data in comment below, we chose the best of sources)

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